The Oracle · free · Kalshi × Polymarket × Polymarket US
Paid either way.
Two apps sometimes price the same question differently. Buy both answers, one of them pays, and you keep the gap after fees.
Every pick below changes to this amount. A contract pays $1 if its answer comes true and $0 if not.
Buy both answers. One of them pays. You keep the difference. Most money per day first, at your amount.
Already want to bet on something? Here’s where it costs less. The saving is real at the prices shown. The bet is still a bet.
Cheaper here than the price on the bigger app. Still a bet: you can lose it all. We’re testing these on paper first.
My picks · on this device only
Money back early.
Tap I did this on a card and we’ll keep an eye on it. If you can sell both sides early for a profit, you’ll see it here first.
The big number
Could I get rich like the 2022–2024 study?
No, not today, and here’s why. A university study of these two apps (2026) turned $100 into about $1,319 over 800 days, from 15 trades. That was 2022 to 2024, when Polymarket charged no fees and Kalshi charged none on the big election market. The big number came from short waits repeated, not from big gaps: the study’s gaps were 2 to 4¢ on the dollar.
Today both apps charge fees. On a coin-flip game the two fees add up to about 3¢ per $1, which is about the size of a typical gap. On 25 Sep, in one check of 1,124 games listed on both apps, only 2 still had a gap after fees before the game started.
Polymarket and Polymarket US list many of the same questions too. In one check on 25 Sep we matched 6,153 of them: 26 had a gap after fees at the best price, and only 5 still did once we counted how much was for sale. None was a game. The biggest paid $93 on $3,440 in January; the rest were a few dollars or less.
- Be fast. Good gaps often last about 10 to 20 minutes. Keep money in both apps ahead of time and act while the badge is green. A pick that pays in 5 hours frees your money for the next one.
- Respect the size limit. Each gap has only so much for sale, and every card says how much fits at its price. Putting in more doesn’t earn more.
- Don’t park money for years. A 2028 pick pays about 1.6% a year; a US Treasury bill (the safe government savings rate) pays about 4%. Only take slow picks if you watch for Money back early.
- Use Cheapest app for bets you’d make anyway.
- Be patient with your own price (advanced). Setting your own price and waiting cuts fees, but the order may never go through: our practice orders haven’t gone through yet.
Real numbers so far. The biggest price gap we measured was a Counter-Strike match that would have paid $5.48 per $100 in about 5 hours, with about $1,500 for sale. We saw that once, and it was a gap we saw, not a finished pick: the Track record lists only picks that finished.
Track record
$1,000 following the Oracle.
Practice money. Every pays-either-way pick gets up to $100, or less if less was for sale. The money comes back when the event ends.
Small. That’s what those gaps were worth at the size on offer. Practice money at the prices we saw; real orders can fill worse.
Two words you’ll see
Contract · pair
A contract pays $1 if its answer comes true and $0 if not. It costs less than $1, and the price is roughly the crowd’s guess of the chance.
A pair is one “yes” on one app plus one “no” on the other. Exactly one of them comes true, so a pair pays $1 whatever happens, unless the one rare case named on the card happens.
Contracts or shares are the two apps’ words for the same thing: one $1 ticket.